More Time to Prepare for Solar flare storm - NASA

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A new computer model that manages to combine artificial intelligence (AI) & NASA satellite data. Similar to a tornado siren for life-threatening storms in America’s heartland, could sound the alarm for dangerous space weather.

On October 2, 2014, NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory caught this image of a solar flare. — On October 2, 2014, NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory caught this image of a solar flare.

The model employs artificial intelligence to analyze spacecraft metrics of the solar wind. (a never-ending stream of material from the Sun). Anticipate where an incipient solar storm will strike, anywhere on Earth, with 30 minutes’ notice. This may be just enough to get ready for these storms. Avoid major damage to power grids and other critical infrastructure.

Solar Material Ejections’ Significantly affect on the Earth’s Magnetosphere and Technical Disruptions

Solar material is constantly ejected into space by the Sun, both in a steady flow known as “solar wind” and in shorter, more energizing bursts from solar eruptions. When this solar material collides with Earth’s magnetic surroundings (its “magnetosphere”), it can cause auroras. The effects of these magnetic storms can range from mild to severe. But in an increasingly technological society, their effects are becoming increasingly disruptive.

A destructive solar storm

For example, caused electronic blackouts across Quebec for 12 hours in 1989, stranding millions of Canadians and closing schools and businesses. The Carrington Event in 1859, the most intense solar storm on record. Caused fires at telegraph stations and prevented communications from being sent. If the Carrington Event occurred today. The consequences would be far-reaching, including widespread power outages, prolonged blackouts, and disruptions in global communications. Such technological chaos could cripple economic growth and jeopardize people’s safety and livelihoods worldwide.

Furthermore, as we approach the next “solar highest,” a peak in the Sun’s 11-year activity cycle, which is expected to arrive in 2025 the risk of geomagnetic storms and their disastrous impact on our society is increasing.

Predicting the Impact of Solar Wind on the Earth’s Magnetic Field

To help prepare, an international team of researchers at the Frontier Development Lab – a public-private partnership that includes NASA, the United States Geological Survey, and the United States Department of Energy – has been using machine learning (AI) to look for links between the solar wind and earth’s magnetic disruptions, or perturbations, that cause havoc on our technology. The researchers used “deep learning,” an AI method that trains computers to recognize patterns based on previous examples. This type of AI was used to identify the relationships between solar wind measurement techniques from heliophysics missions (such as ACE, Wind, IMP-8, and Geotail). eomagnetic perturbations observed at ground stations around the world.

DAGGER is a revolutionary computer model which forecasts geomagnetic disturbances in real time.

As a result, they created a computer model called DAGGER (formally, Deep Learning Geomagnetic Perturbation) that can predict geomagnetic disruptions worldwide 30 minutes in advance. According to the team, the model can generate forecasts in less than a second and notifications them every minute.

The DAGGER team put the model through its paces against two geomagnetic storms. Occurred in August 2011 and March 2015. For each case, DAGGER was capable of predicting the storm’s global impact promptly.

Previous forecast models used artificial intelligence to generate local geomagnetic forecasts for specific locations on Earth. Other models that did not use AI produced global predictions that were not particularly timely. DAGGER is the first to combine AI’s rapid analysis with measurements from space and across the globe to generate frequently updated forecasts.

“With this AI, it is now possible to generate quick and precise global forecasts and inform decision-making in the event of a solar storm, thereby reducing – or even preventing – devastation to modern society,” said Vishal Upendran.

Impact of Solar Storms on Infrastructure

According to Upendran, the computer code in the DAGGER model is open source. It could be adopted with assistance by power grid operators, satellite controllers, telecom companies.

others to apply the predictions to their specific needs. Such warnings could give them enough time to take protective measures to protect their assets and infrastructure from an incipient solar storm. Such as temporarily shutting down sensitive systems or moving satellites to low orbit to minimize damage.

With models like DAGGER, there may one day be loud solar storm bangs that sound an alarm in power stations and satellite control units all over the world, much like tornado sirens do in towns and cities across America.